
date when a long
enough history is available for all the assets of interest (so-called
truncated-sample estimation). A more appealing alternative was proposed in a
paper by Stambaugh (1997). Since his approach requires several technical
steps, we start by describing the method in words and then proceed to a formal
description:
1. Estimate the
truncated-sample moments for both sets of assets.
2. Estimate a
regression of each of the assets with a shorter history on all the assets with
a longer history (use the truncated sample for this step). The regression
coefficients identify the statistical relationship between the two sets of
data.
3.
For the assets with a longer history:
a. Estimate the moments for the
entire sample.
b. Measure the difference between
the moments computed over the entire sam
ple and the moments computed using the truncated sample. If the difference
is positive, this means that the moments computed over the shorter sample
underestimate the more precise estimates obtained using the entire sample
(and vice versa).
4. Using the results from the
regressions and the measures from step 3b, adjust
the moment estimates for the series with a shorter history.
The
method proposed by Stambaugh was not originally developed to accommodate some
of the features that we have incorporated into our estimator (serial
correlation correction and a weighting scheme that assigns more weight to more
recent observations). However, since the case of no serial correlation and
constant weight is a special case of our estimator, we proceed to a formal
presentation of Stambaugh's method using our notation, which is more general.
Start by defining
two sets of assets, and group them into two matrices RA{d) and
Rg(d). The first matrix contains T observations on NA assets,
whereas the second matrix contains S observations on NB assets.
If S < T, then the second matrix contains the assets with a shorter
history. Assuming that the assets have already been premultiplied by a vector
of weights, we proceed according to the steps described earlier.
First,
estimate the truncated-sample moments for both groups of assets using the
estimator in equation (16.6). Let SAAS(m) and ^BS(m)
be the covariance matrices for the two sets of data, based on the truncated
sample.
Second,
run a regression for each of the assets in Rgid) on the entire set of
assets in RA(d). For each regression, use the truncated
sample (i.e., the last S observations). Since the parameters of a
regression can be estimated using variances and covari-ances, this is easily
accomplished using the covariance matrix estimator proposed in (16.6) and selecting
the appropriate components:
Bs=SAAiS(m)-1SA3iS(m) (16.9)
where
SAB s (m) is the covariance
matrix between the returns in RA(d) and the returns in Rgld),
estimated using the last S observations.